The 2026 United States midterm elections are scheduled for November 3, 2026. These elections represent a critical juncture in American governance, occurring exactly halfway through the non-consecutive second term of Republican President Donald Trump.[1] Historically, midterm elections serve as a national referendum on the sitting president's performance and the prevailing economic and social conditions.[2] [3]

Historical Context and the Midterm Phenomenon

The "midterm law" of American politics suggests that the president’s party almost invariably loses seats in the House of Representatives.[4] Since 1946, the president's party has lost seats in 18 out of 20 midterm cycles.[5] This phenomenon is often attributed to "surge and decline" theory, where the presidential election attracts surge voters who stay home during midterms, and "negative partisanship," where the opposition is more motivated to vote against the incumbent administration.[6] [7]

The 2026 cycle is unique as the first midterm since 1894 to take place during a non-consecutive second presidential term.[1] Political scientists note that when a president's approval rating is below 50%, the likelihood of significant seat losses increases dramatically.[5] [8] As of early 2026, President Trump’s approval ratings have fluctuated in the low 40s, influenced by public reception of the "One Big Beautiful Bill" Act and the imposition of global tariffs.[1] [9]

Federal Elections: The 120th Congress

The 2026 elections will determine the composition of the 120th United States Congress. At stake are all 435 voting seats in the House of Representatives and 35 seats in the U.S. Senate.[1] [10]

United States Senate

The Senate elections involve 33 Class 2 seats and two special elections.[1] Republicans entered the cycle with a 53–45 majority (with two independents caucusing with Democrats).[11]

• The Map: Republicans must defend 22 seats, while Democrats defend 13.[9]
• Vulnerable Seats: Democratic-held seats in Georgia and Michigan are in states won by Trump in 2024, while Maine represents a Republican-held seat in a state won by Kamala Harris.[1]
• Special Elections: Florida and Ohio will hold special elections to fill the unexpired terms of Marco Rubio and JD Vance, who vacated their seats to join the executive branch.[1] [11]

House of Representatives

Control of the House requires 218 seats. Heading into the election, Republicans hold a narrow majority.[11]

• Redistricting: Several states, including Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Texas, and Utah, are using redrawn maps due to mid-decade legislative actions or court mandates.[1] [9]
• Generic Ballot: Early 2026 polling shows a Democratic lead on the generic congressional ballot, with some surveys placing the advantage at 6 to 8 points.[12] [13]